China Is Likely To Fill the Vacuum' From U.S. TPP Exit

Ratifying the TPP would bring enormous economic and geostrategic benefits, not just to the U.S., but to all TPP partners. The agreement covers 12 countries, which together produce 40 percent of the world’s GDP. What makes TPP different from previous agreements is that it covers all products, even the most sensitive agricultural ones which have typically been excluded from previous agreements. Furthermore, TPP would also create rules for state-owned enterprises, digital trade, environmental protection, intellectual property, and much more. It has very robust provisions on labor; For example, Vietnam agreed to allow independent unions under the agreement, which is a big policy change. TPP would set a high standard for how trade is done in the 21st century. A year ago, China — which wasn’t part of the TPP negotiations — was looking at the agreement very closely, and did not appear to be ruling out joining it eventually. Now there is indeed a vacuum, and someone will fill it. The Asian countries want to continue liberalizing. I expect that the RCEP negotiations, which have been going on for a few years, will be intensified now, and possibly concluded in 2017.