If Trump builds the wall, what will happen to our food system?

One of the most comprehensive studies on how immigration policy impacts the food system was commissioned by the American Farm Bureau Federation in 2014. Their report examines several policy scenarios, including what the authors refer to as the “enforcement only” option, which they define as “strengthened border security and…more aggressive use of deportation”—essentially Trump’s plan to date. The Farm Bureau strongly condemned this strategy, recommending instead “an adjustment of status for experienced, but unauthorized, agricultural workers”—in other words, making them legal.  The report found that stemming the flow of undocumented immigrants across the southern border—which currently accounts for between 50 and 70 percent of the agricultural workforce—would cause retail food prices to jump an average of five to six percent, and that “the quantity and variety of grocery store produce would diminish.” Five or six percent may not sound like much, but for folks suffering from food insecurity it could make a huge difference in their diet, in terms of both quality and quantity, as the average SNAP (food stamps) recipient makes do on a food budget of just $4.23 per day. The price shocks would not be diminished evenly across the supermarket aisles, with foods that are typically imported (like olives) or produced primarily with mechanized means (grains and legumes), staying roughly the same. The biggest price increases would be seen in the produce department—as fruits and vegetables are by far the most labor intensive foods to produce—though the researchers did not provide a specific number. A study by the National Milk Producers Federation, however, found that the price of dairy products—also a very labor-intensive segment of the food system—would go up dramatically. The NMPF says to expect a 90 percent increase in retail milk prices if the immigrant labor supply is taken away from American dairy farmers.