Interpreting USDA's Net Farm Income Forecast

On February 7, 2017, the USDA forecasted 2017 net farm income at $62.3 billion. Many of the financial headlines focused on the continued decline of net farm income, but our analysis shows that these initial forecasts tend to under-predict net farm income. As a result, the forecast history since 1975 suggests that net farm income is expected to exceed this initial forecast.