A Review of the Facts on U.S. Agricultural Trade

The outlook for trade has darkened considerably in recent days; a gamble in the trade arena that holds substantial risk for American farmers. In May, President Trump initiated a trade investigation on automobiles that held the potential for triggering tariffs on imported cars and trucks. On June 1st, the long-threatened tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) went into effect for important U.S. trading partners (Mexico, Canada and the European Union), who quickly responded with threats or tariffs on U.S. exports; Mexico, in particular, imposed tariffs on $3 billion worth of American exports, including agricultural commodities and products. Adding confusion to the concern, President Trump claimed that U.S. farmers haven't been doing well for the last 15 years, and suggested that Canada, China, and Mexico have been treating U.S. farmers unfairly with "big trade barriers". These recent twists in the trade discussions call for further examination of the facts and potential risks, beginning with the data for the last 28 years, back to 1990 and the precursor to NAFTA--the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.