Soybeans symbolize the costs of a US-China trade war

When the U.S. announced on April 3 plans to impose tariffs on certain Chinese goods to punish it for alleged infringement of intellectual property rights, China quickly retaliated with duties on 106 U.S. products. The surprise for the global commodities market is the inclusion of soybeans on the list. The question is whether, given the interdependence of the two countries in soybean trade, China can handle the pain the tariffs would impose. There is no doubt the tariffs will sting the U.S. if they cause a slump in exports. The U.S. devotes just under half its soybean production to exports; of those, 60% go to China. U.S. soybean exports to China totaled $14.2 billion in 2016. That far outstrips Japan's global export target for all agricultural products in 2019.