Trump Trade War Fallout Could Haunt U.S. Soy Farmers for Years

If history is any guide, the trade war with China will have lasting affects for U.S. farmers and their soybean crops that the president won’t be boasting about. Donald Trump is set to meet Xi Jinping, his counterpart in China, at the G-20 summit and traders are optimistic for a resolution. But a flashback to Richard Nixon’s 1973 soybean embargo and Jimmy Carter’s 1980 Soviet grain ban suggest that what’s already happened this year may lead to permanent changes ahead as China seeks alternatives to the U.S. market."It’s possible that China will never fully trust the U.S. as a reliable trade partner again," said Ann Berg, an independent consultant and veteran trader who started her career at Louis Dreyfus Co. in 1974. "They will always be on their toes and their decision to diversify supplies could become a ‘de facto’ import quota for U.S. soybeans."As China looks elsewhere for its beans, many countries could jump on the bandwagon and look to boost planted areas. The obvious candidates would be in South America, but Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has already warned his country is planning to increase production in the Far East for delivery to China.