USDA predicts record corn crop; slashes corn, soybean price outlook

U.S. corn production is forecast at a record 15.2 billion bushels, up 613 million from the July projection, according to USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast of the year.  Consequently, USDA slashed its projected range for the season-average corn price by 25 cents on both ends to $2.85 to $3.45 per bushel for the 2016/17 crop year.  This would be down 45 cents at the midpoint from the $3.55 to $3.65 per bushel range now expected for 2015/16. Corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected 328 million bushels higher and, if realized, would be the highest since 1987/88. U.S. soybean production for 2016/17 is forecast at 4.06 billion bushels, up 180 million due to increased yields. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 48.9 bushels per acre is 2.2 bushels above last month and 0.9 bushels above last year’s record. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2016/17 is forecast at $8.35 to $9.85 per bushel, down 40 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $305 to $345 per short ton, down $20 at the midpoint.